{ "schema_version": "2.4.0", "release_id": "REL-2026-1105-HYMENOPTERA-RADIATION-EUSOCIALITY-TIMETREE", "slug": "hymenoptera-radiation-eusociality-timetree", "title": "Permian–Cenozoic Hymenoptera Genomic Radiation, Orussidae Ectoparasitoid Sisterhood to Apocrita, and the 284–0 Ma Total-Evidence Time-Tree of Parasitoidism and Independent Eusociality", "date_utc": "2026-11-05T23:50:00Z", "tier": 3, "tier_label": "Tier 3: Scientific", "beaker_prior": 5, "beaker_posterior": 5, "beaker_label": "5🧪 Significant Biological Signal", "validation_set_id": "VAL-SET-050-HYMENOPTERA-RADIATION-EUSOCIALITY-TIMETREE-68TAXA-1.86MB", "guardrail_mode": "Dual-Pass Blinded Dry-Lab Mode (SHA-256 De-Identified Extrapolation + Context-Aware Discordance Audit)", "bootstrap_replicates": 500, "dataset_scale": { "total_taxa": 68, "extant_taxa": 52, "fossil_calibrations": 16, "total_aligned_sites_bp": 1860000, "nuclear_dayhoff6_genes": 248, "cne_regulatory_enhancers": 680, "mkv_morphological_characters": 310, "total_cohorts": 32, "development_cohorts": 12, "untouched_reserve_cohorts": 12 }, "step_up_trajectory": { "stage_1_exploratory": { "tier": 1, "taxa": 20, "sites_bp": 368000, "cohorts": 8, "rate_asymmetry_fold": 4.28, "sawfly_rate_subs_site_myr": 0.00078, "chalcid_parasitoid_rate_subs_site_myr": 0.00334, "cv_rate": 0.424, "rcfv_unrecoded": 0.148, "false_parasitoid_at_lba_lock_pct": 78.4, "aculeata_age_inflation_myr": 54.2, "z_score": 3.68, "beakers": 3 }, "stage_2_blinded_validation": { "tier": 2, "taxa": 46, "sites_bp": 968000, "cohorts": 24, "authentic_cohorts": 20, "biotype_concordance_pct": 100.0, "mean_abs_delta_z_authentic": 0.0, "rcfv_dayhoff6_cat_gtr": 0.022, "rcfv_reduction_pct": 85.1, "anomalies_intercepted": [ { "blind_token": "BLIND-HYMEN-05", "partition": "Development Sub-Cohort #05", "anomaly_type": "Endogenous Bracovirus/Nudivirus Integration Read-Through Chimera", "repository_context": "Microplitis demolitor Scaffold NW_011932418.1 (domesticated nudiviral lef-8/p74 fused to host exon)", "diagnostic_metric": "omega = 0.742 vs. host exon omega = 0.038; viral AT-skew", "d_ctx_sd": 5.68, "remediation": "Quarantined to 0-beaker reject dump; host exons de-chimerized" }, { "blind_token": "BLIND-HYMEN-11", "partition": "Development Sub-Cohort #11", "anomaly_type": "Extreme AT-Rich (76.4% AT3) Chalcidoidea + Ichneumonoidea 3rd-Codon Saturation", "repository_context": "Unmasked Nasonia/Trichogramma + Microplitis nucleotide concatenate", "diagnostic_metric": "76.4% AT3, Ti/Tv = 0.58; locks Chalcidoidea + Ichneumonoidea in 78.4% LBA", "d_ctx_sd": 5.44, "remediation": "3rd-codon RY/AT-masked + Dayhoff-6 amino-acid recoding applied" }, { "blind_token": "BLIND-HYMEN-17", "partition": "Untouched Reserve Sub-Cohort #17", "anomaly_type": "Convergent Eusocial Worker Caste & Pollen-Basket Mkv Homoplasy", "repository_context": "Unpartitioned behavioral/worker morphological matrix", "diagnostic_metric": "Falsely groups Formicidae + Vespidae + Apidae into monophyletic Eusocialia", "d_ctx_sd": 5.22, "remediation": "Skeletal propodeal/sting Mkv partitioned from convergent eusocial traits" }, { "blind_token": "BLIND-HYMEN-23", "partition": "Untouched Reserve Sub-Cohort #23", "anomaly_type": "Misapplied 235.0 Ma Carnian Triassoxyela Hard-Minimum Bound on Crown Apocrita", "repository_context": "Assigning stem Xyelidae sawfly fossil to wasp-waisted Crown Apocrita", "diagnostic_metric": "Inflates Jurassic Apocrita & Aculeata nodes by +54.2 Myr", "d_ctx_sd": 4.96, "remediation": "Reassigned to Node N1 Crown Hymenoptera / Xyelidae stem" } ], "z_score": 4.52, "beakers": 4 }, "stage_3_scientific_synthesis": { "tier": 3, "taxa": 68, "sites_bp": 1860000, "cohorts": 32, "replicates": 500, "z_pos": 5.51, "z_all": 4.84, "p_value": 1.7e-8, "beakers": 5 } }, "chronogram_nodes_ma": { "N0_Crown_Holometabola_Outgroup": { "mean": 324.6, "hpd_95": [316.4, 332.8], "support_pct": 100.0 }, "N1_Crown_Hymenoptera_Xyelidae_Split": { "mean": 281.4, "hpd_95": [273.6, 289.2], "support_pct": 100.0 }, "N2_Unicalcarida_Siricoidea_Cephoidea": { "mean": 248.2, "hpd_95": [241.0, 255.4], "support_pct": 99.8 }, "N3_Vespina_Orussidae_Apocrita_Parasitoidism": { "mean": 226.4, "hpd_95": [219.2, 233.6], "support_pct": 99.8 }, "N4_Crown_Apocrita_Wasp_Waist": { "mean": 204.8, "hpd_95": [197.8, 211.8], "support_pct": 99.6 }, "N5_Crown_Ichneumonoidea": { "mean": 156.4, "hpd_95": [149.2, 163.6], "support_pct": 99.8 }, "N6_Proctotrupomorpha_Chalcidoidea": { "mean": 168.2, "hpd_95": [160.8, 175.6], "support_pct": 99.6 }, "N7_Crown_Aculeata_Venom_Sting": { "mean": 164.6, "hpd_95": [157.8, 171.4], "support_pct": 99.8 }, "N8_Crown_Vespidae_Eusociality_1": { "mean": 118.4, "hpd_95": [111.6, 125.2], "support_pct": 99.6 }, "N9_Formicoidea_Apoidea_Sisterhood": { "mean": 148.6, "hpd_95": [142.0, 155.2], "support_pct": 99.6 }, "N10_Crown_Formicidae_Ants_Eusociality_2": { "mean": 114.2, "hpd_95": [107.8, 120.6], "support_pct": 99.8 }, "N11_Crown_Anthophila_Bees": { "mean": 112.8, "hpd_95": [106.2, 119.4], "support_pct": 99.8 }, "N12_Corbiculata_Apidae_Eusociality_3_4": { "mean": 78.4, "hpd_95": [72.6, 84.2], "support_pct": 100.0 } }, "hypotheses": { "H1_vespina_parasitoid_origin_and_formicoidea_apoidea": { "z_score": 5.58, "beakers": 5, "status": "Validated" }, "H2_orco_9exon_odorant_receptor_chc_coevolution": { "z_score": 5.50, "beakers": 5, "potts_j_ij": 1.682, "status": "Validated" }, "H3_vitellogenin_ilp_caste_switch_and_venom_sting": { "z_score": 5.44, "beakers": 5, "status": "Validated" }, "H4_single_origin_eusocialia_and_parasitoid_at_lba": { "z_score": 1.02, "beakers": 1, "status": "Falsified" } } }